2015 World Series Preview - Metropolis vs. Santa Barbara

                               

The American League Champion Santa Barbara Outlaws are set to meet the National League Champion Metropolis Avengers in the World Series for the third time in four years. Metropolis won the 2012 series in seven games and Santa Barbara won the 2013 series in six games. While the only numbers that matter from now on are wins and losses, there are others that help set the stage for the Fall Classic:

• Santa Barbara won 108 games on the season and Metropolis won 106.
• The Outlaws got the best of the Avengers during the season, winning four of the seven games between the teams. Santa Barbara outscored Metropolis 31-23 in those seven games.
• During the season, Metropolis outscored its opponents 794-510, for a +284 run differential. Santa Barbara outscored its opponents 795-576 for a +219 run differential.
• Baseball's version of the Pythagorean Formula projects the Avengers to win 110 games and the Outlaws 104.
• The Outlaws and Avengers have dominated their respective leagues for the last few years. The Outlaws are in their fourth World Series in the last five and Metropolis is appearing in its fourth straight.
• Metropolis also won the National League in 2006, when it won its first World Series.
• The teams were nearly identical on offense. Metropolis hit .275/.339/.419 for a .758 team OPS. Santa Barbara hit .276/.335/.422 for a .757 team OPS. Despite the eerily similar numbers, Metropolis may have the better offense, as they play half their games in the spacious Hall of Justice.
• However, that same large ballpark may mean the Avengers’ pitchers don’t have the advantage their raw numbers may suggest. Metropolis’s pitchers compiled a 2.91 ERA with 1480 strikeouts and 120 home runs allowed during the season. Santa Barbara pitchers teamed up for a 3.23 ERA with 1324 strikeouts and 158 home runs.
• Looking at home runs hit at home and on the road is one way to demonstrate how much the Hall of Justice can depress offense. The Avengers hit 86 big flies on the road but just 60 at home. The Outlaws home runs were evenly distributed, with 73 on the road and 72 at home.
• The Outlaw bullpen may be even better than the Avengers’. Santa Barbara had a 2.33 ERA in relief and allowed just 27 homers in 437 innings.
• Metropolis’s relievers were also excellent, but had a higher ERA at 2.80. They also allowed more homers – 34 in 462 innings.
• If it comes to a game of small-ball, the Outlaws will likely win the series easily. They had 70 sacrifice bunts and the Avengers had none. (That’s not a typo – they didn’t have a successful bunt all season.) Santa Barbara’s 10 squeeze attempts were the most in baseball.
• Santa Barbara also stole nearly ten times as many bases as Metropolis – 267 to 28.
• Metropolis has a five day layoff between the NLCS and the World Series, as they only needed five games to dispatch the Fleetwood Walkers.
• The ALCS went the full distance, giving Santa Barbara just three days to rest before the World Series. That may force Santa Barbara to shuffle its rotation for the World Series and the team has yet to announce its Game One starter.
• The Avengers rotation is rested and ready. It will likely begin just as it did the NLDS and NLCS, with Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber getting the starts at Santa Barbara in Games One and Two. The big question for Metropolis is if Collin McHugh is still in the rotation after his disastrous NLCS start. If he gets bumped, the Avengers could turn to either Stephen Strasburg or Yusmeiro Petit in his spot.
• Santa Barbara changed their rotation for the ALCS, bumping long-time Oultaw Jered Weaver in favor of lefty Madison Bumgarner. It’s unclear who will get the spot in the World Series, but Bumgarner seems to have the inside track.
• Bumgarner was 15-12 with a 4.32 ERA on the season. Weaver went 14-11 with a 4.27 ERA. Both took the ball every time and started 35 games.
• Outlaw lefty reliever Andrew Miller may well be the deciding factor in the series. He was nearly untouchable during the season, with a 1.15 ERA in 62 2/3 innings. He allowed just 27 hits and 12 walks while striking out 101.
• However, Avenger ace Carrasco could shut down the Outlaws in the two games he’ll start. He was 15-4 in his 23 starts and had a 1.86 ERA in 140 1/3 innings. Carrasco allowed only 83 hits and 28 walks in those starts. Even more impressive were the five total homers he allowed, a rate of less than one every nine innings.
• The Outlaws likely have the best table setters in Brassball. Denard Span and Jose Altuve combined to hit .329 with 152 stolen bases and 197 runs during the season.
• Santa Barbara added relievers Jonathan Papelbon and Sean Doolittle during the season. Papelbon put up a 3.43 ERA in his 32 games as an Outlaw. Doolittle had a 3.57 ERA in just 14 games after the trade.
• The Outlaws also added OF/DH Delmon Young in a trade. Young apparently liked the new surroundings, as he hit .313/.371/.531 for a .903 OPS with Santa Barbara.
• No matter what happens in the series, both teams will be among those most likely to return in 2016. One big difference is that Santa Barbara is sitting on a pile of cash to spend in free agency while Metropolis appears to be up against its payroll cap and likely has limited flexibility to fill holes in the off-season.