Building a Better Bullpen - Part II

Having already added Kenley Jansen and David Herndon to my bullpen, I decided it was time to go all-in and targeted the best relief pitcher in baseball – Craig Kimbrel.  His Schaumburg team has recently relocated to Butte County and the new owner indicated a willingness to make deals.  I started discussions and they quickly grew to include ace starter R.A. Dickey in addition to Kimbrel.

Initially, I didn’t think I was too interested in Dickey.  My rotation was strong enough and Dickey was unlikely to even make my playoff rotation, but he was quite intriguing due to his sterling 2012 MLB season for the Mets.  Of course, the question is whether Dickey will be able to maintain his current MLB pace or if he will tail off and become merely useful as opposed to dominating. 

Our talks quickly focused on my two best minor league prospects – Miguel Sano and Anthony Rendon, my 2013 first-round pick and a replacement reliever (Chris Resop).  That’s a lot of future value to surrender in one deal and I wavered for a couple of days.  The real wild card was Dickey, as I just wasn’t sure how to value him.  If he maintained his first-half production, the deal would be good.  However, given the unpredictable nature of Dickey’s knuckleball, it is possible that he would have an ERA closer to 6.00 than to 3.00 for the remainder of his contract.

The new Butte County owner and I went back-and-forth; with neither seemingly ready to pull the trigger.  He kept insisting that I include a third top youngster, first baseman Matt Adams.  I was reluctant and decided that including Adams was simply too much future value when factoring in Dickey’s unpredictable future.  Butte County refused to budge on Adams and we put the entire deal on hold for another day or so. 

During that time, I started chatting with the California GM about a number of role players who could help me in the playoffs.  California was quite busy at the trade deadline – acting both as buyer and seller in different deals.  We had some good discussions, but didn’t find a deal that could help me.  That was fine, as the players I was looking for were mostly spare parts, such as a platoon 1B that would replace the recently departed Jed Lowrie.

It turned out, however, that California was also looking for a good starter for their playoff run.  Although I didn’t expect much to come of it, I tossed out Dan Haren’s name.  Haren has a very good card for the current Brassball season and I was counting on him for the playoffs and the next couple of years.  However, once I really looked at it, I realized I probably could deal Haren, as he was only slightly better than Kyle Lohse and neither would be likely to make more than a single start in a playoff series. 

California was interested in Haren and we quickly settled on players that would be involved in a deal.  I would send Haren in exchange for a 2013 #3 pick, prospect Eddie Rosario and Jerry Sands, who could help me against left-handed pitchers in the playoffs. 

Once California and I agreed on the deal parameters, I returned to Butte County to see where our Kimbrel/Dickey trade stood.  We agreed in principle to a deal as outlined above and including Matt Adams (from me) and a 2013 #2 pick (to me).  Before I pulled the trigger on both trades, I had to put them together into one transaction so I could weigh the pros and cons. 

Here’s how it looked (with contract savings included):

Metropolis Receives:

Craig Kimbrel

R.A. Dickey

Jerry Sands

Eddie Rosario

2013 #2

2013 #3

$10,000,000

Metropolis Sends:

Dan Haren

Miguel Sano

Anthony Rendon

Matt Adams

Chris Resop

2013 #1

Although dealing Sano and Rendon really hurts, putting the trades together made it easier to justify.  Adding Rosario helps restock my prospect stable and the $10,000,000 that I save in moving from Haren to Dickey will give me an even bigger bank account to use in free agency.  Both are signed to deals expiring after the 2014 Brassball season and Dickey has outpitched Haren by a wide margin in 2012, so like that swap going forward.   The draft picks likely work out in my favor, too, particularly because I’m hoping my own pick will be near the end of the first round.

Of course, this all started because I wanted to add Craig Kimbrel to my bullpen, and he remains the key to these two deals.  He is under team control for a very low salary for five seasons in addition to this one, so I hope to match him with new Avenger Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman to make my bullpen a real strength for the next five seasons.

I had assumed I was done after the two trades above, having added David Herndon, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel to my bullpen and R.A. Dickey to my rotation, but I decided to see if I could another lefty to my pen.  In looking at the rosters, I focused on Boston’s Jeremy Affeldt.  He is extremely tough on left-handed hitters and Boston was willing to move him for some salary relief ($800,000 for each of the next two seasons).  I sent him David Carpenter and we quickly agreed on the deal.

Finally, I also dealt Fernando Rodriguez to Myrtle Beach, as I no longer needed his innings.  I only got $100,000 for him, but it helps.

In the end, this is how all my deals shake out.  I’ve added the general contract details, to help get a full picture of the trades.

Metropolis Acquires:

Craig Kimbrel (Under control through 2016 MLB season)

Kenley Jansen (2016)

R.A. Dickey (2013 @ $666,666/year)

Jeremy Affeldt (2013 @ $800,000/year)

Jerry Sands (2016)

David Herndon (Likely cut after this season)

Eddie Rosario (first six MLB seasons)

2013 #2 Pick

2013 #3 Pick

$100,000

Metropolis Trades:

Dan Haren (2013 @$4,022,000/year)

Jed Lowrie (2014)

Matt Adams (2017)

Chris Resop (2016)

Miguel Sano (first six MLB seasons)

Anthony Rendon (first six MLB seasons)

David Carpenter (2017)

Fernando Rodriguez (2016)

2013 #1 Pick

Building a Better Bullpen - Part I

After several difficult years, 2012 was to be the season the Metropolis Avengers returned to respectability.  That started in the offseason when we traded for Jose Bautista and signed star free agents CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano and Jose Reyes.

Going into the season, I thought my lineup and rotation were strong enough to be competitive in the playoffs, but knew my bullpen might be a little short.  I had hoped a bullpen anchored by Neftali Feliz, Sergio Santos, Marc Rzepczynski and Aroldis Chapman would be able to get the job done, but after losing several games in the late innings, it was obvious I would need to upgrade my pen if the Avengers were to have a real chance to get to the Brassball World Series.

In June, I scoured the league rosters and identified about 25 pitchers I thought could help.  I was aggressive in pursuing deals and emailed at least ten owners hoping to find an upgrade.  Not many owners were willing to throw in the towel that early and, despite my efforts, I entered July with the same bullpen I had in April. 

In mid-July I restarted talks with numerous owners, hoping that some would be more open to a deal after another month of games.  Luckily for me, that’s just what happened.

My first deal was with Florence for David Herndon.  On the surface, Herndon might not look like an obvious target, but he is a right-hander that can shut down right-handed hitters.  My pen did not have that “hard righty” before and I hope Herndon can do his job in what will likely be short stints against some of the top righties in the league.  Herndon had Tommy John surgery in 2012, making him a rental for the rest of the season and also lowering his price.  He cost me just $100,000 plus the remainder of his salary for 2012.

After picking up Herndon, I returned to a deal that was, literally, months in the making.  I had been talking to Parkland since early in the season, as I knew they had a deep and talented bullpen.  (To be completely honest, Parkland may have claimed I had been stalking or hounding them, but I’ll stick with “talking.”)  In a series of emails, phone calls and in-person talks, we considered a number of different combinations, but it was obvious Parkland wasn’t going to deal until they decided they were out of contention. 

I had initially targeted Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland, but by mid-July, I narrowed my focus to Jansen alone, as I had already acquired Herndon and was hoping to acquire one or two more relievers elsewhere.

Parkland made it clear they were looking primarily for talent already in the majors, which was a little difficult for me.  My MLB roster is fairly lean and most of the valuable assets had important roles on my current Brassball team.  In the end, I decided that I could afford to deal Jed Lowrie, despite the fact he was my platoon 1B and having a great 2012 MLB season.  In the end, you have to give talent to get it, and I have Jose Reyes locked in as my shortstop and hope Jansen will be an important part of my bullpen for the next several seasons. 

Once Parkland decided it was time to deal, we completed our trade quite quickly – it was a straight Lowrie-for-Jansen deal.  I’m quite happy with the deal, but I do feel bad that Lowrie went on the MLB disabled list just two days after the trade.  Of course, injury risk has always been part of the equation for Lowrie, which is another reason I was willing to deal him.

After two deals I had added two good arms to my bullpen, but I wasn’t satisfied.  In Part II, I’ll discuss additional trades that added even more quality and depth to my bullpen.

Player Stat Lines - July

Now that the season is about two-thirds complete, it is sometimes difficult to see how players are performing month-to-month.  Here are some of the most interesting stats from July - one for each team.

Boston – Jake Peavy was 4-2 in six starts with three complete games and one shutout.  In games started by anyone else, the Tea Party was an abysmal 2-20.

Brew City – Angel Pagan led the team with a .307 average and was a perfect 7-0 in his stole base attempts.   

Brooklyn – Rickey Romero started six games and threw five complete games.  He called it a day after only eight innings in his other start.  He also went 4-2 on the month with a 3.23 ERA.

California – Josh Hamilton slugged eight homers and drove in 24 runs.  Opposing pitchers only walked him eight times, though that will increase if he keeps up his July production.

Cook County – Matt Kemp had 40 strikeouts in only 112 at bats with just three homers and 13 RBIs.  There were many culprits for the Maulers’ 12-16 month, but Kemp was #1.

Fleetwood – Darren Oliver somehow lost two games despite allowing only one earned run all month.  Oliver pitched 21 innings in 13 games and allowed just 16 baserunners.  He gave up two runs total, each one costing him a loss despite his 0.43 ERA.

Florence – Xavier Paul may have hit only .239 and reached base just 36 times all month, but he still managed to steal 10 bases in 11 attempts. 

Fremont – Centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury might have been the Brassball Player of the Month, with a .348 average and 9 home runs.  He also easily lead the league with 30 runs and 20 stolen bases.

Glen Allen – Andre Ethier had a great month, hitting .343 in 102 at bats, but somehow knocked in only nine runs.  With his three homers and Ethier drove in a teammate only six times.

Hessville – Brian Fuentes put together a 0.60 ERA in his 11 games and 15 innings, but earned only two saves.  Instead, the saves went to Joe Smith, who earned six in his 11 games with a 2.61 ERA.

Lancaster – Clay Mortensen should get paid overtime, throwing 33 innings in 19 relief appearances.  He tossed four more innings than any of the Shermans’ starters, including those that started six times in July.

Latrobe – Max Scherzer may not have pitched great, with a 4.03 ERA, but he didn’t deserve a 1-5 record in those six starts.

Metropolis – Dan Haren went 4-1 in his six starts with a 1.73 ERA; and then he got traded to California and replaced by RA Dickey, who went 3-2 with a 5.53 ERA for Schaumburg.

Myrtle Beach – Andy Sonnanstine did record one of the Mermen’s four wins in July, but he also surrendered 10 home runs in just 18 2/3 innings.

North Georgia – Reed Johnson only batted 54 times, but managed to get himself plunked by a pitch in four of those plate appearances. 

Parkland – Joey Votto didn’t do much to help the Green stay in the playoff hunt, hitting .260 with only two homers and eight RBIs in July.

Plaza – New acquisition Brett Lawrie more than proved his value, hitting .384 and slugging eight homers.  His 22 RBIs were 13 more than the nearest Lion.

Santa Barbara – Kyle Farnsworth, Javier Lopez and Drew Storen combined to go 4-0 with a 0.22 ERA in 28 games and more than 40 IP. 

Schaumburg – The new ownership wasn’t impressed enough with JJ Hardy’s nine homers and 20 RBIs, so they sent him packing to California.

Simi Valley – Yovanni Gallardo was a perfect 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA in his four starts, allowing just under a baserunner per inning.

SoCal – Outfielder Mike Stanton was a beast in July, hitting .344 and leading all of Brassball with 10 homers and 31 RBI. 

Springfield – Miguel Estrada was brilliant in his five starts and two relief appearances, with a 2.57 ERA in 35 innings.  Somehow, he only collected one decision, going 1-0 on the month.

Superior – Ace Felix Hernandez averaged more than eight innings in his six starts and had a 3.14 ERA, but still went winless in three decisions.

Tinley – Alfonso Soriano led the team with five homers and 16 RBIs, but finished last with a .183 batting average in 104 at bats.

Statistics Don't Lie (Player Edition)

Following yesterday's Team Edition, here are some random and (hopefully) interesting stats compiled by Brassball players so far in 2012.  As always, Statistics Don't Lie...

2 – team-leading save total for Brew City’s Brian Sanchez. 

2 – pinch hit homeruns by Springfield’s Jorge Posada – the only player in Brassball with more than one.

3 - number of outs Fremont infielder Jeff Keppinger recorded in his unassisted triple play.  Amazingly, he was also involved in a second triple play this year!

2.08 – Daiske Matsuzaka’s ERA in relief, after a 4.54 ERA in 25 starts for Frisco in 2011.  Did Boston find the answer for Daiske’s many questions or is it misusing a valuable asset?

5 - balks by North Georgia's John Grabow, more than many teams in the league.

7 – the number of times Santa Barbara’s Jonathon Papelbon pitched and did not earn a save, in 40 games pitched.

8 – league-leading number of sacrifice Flies by Fleetwod outfielder Carlos Beltran, one more than Latrobe’s Placido Polanco. 

8 - team-leading home run total by Florence's Will Venable and Clint Barmes.

11 – pinch hits by North Georgia’s Reed Johnson – more than twice as many as any other player in the league.

12.97 - runs created/27 outs by SoCal's Mike Napoli, easily outpacing any other regular hitter.

14 – number of unearned runs allowed by Brew City’s Aaron Harang.

33 – sacrifice bunt attempts by Santa Barbara’s Elvis Andrus.  He has come to the plate 349 times, meaning Andrus tried to bunt in almost 10% of his at bats.

36 - potential base stealers thrown out by Myrtle Beache's Jonathon Lucroy, more than ten ahead of the runner up.

45 – net stolen bases (SB-CS) for Tinley’s Michael Bourn.  The next closest is Simi Valley’s Brett Gardner with 31.

57.6% - percentage of Adam Dunn’s plate appearances that end in one of the “Three True Outcomes” (BB, K, HR) for Plaza.

66.6% - the percentage of his 15 starts that Brooklyn’s Ricky Romero has completed.

Statistics Don’t Lie (Team Edition)

The 2012 Brassball season just passed the halfway point, so it's time to take a look at some of the more interesting numbers the teams are putting up.  Some mean a lot, some mean a little, but all are interesting.

.310 – batting average allowed by Boston.  No offense is within 15 points, with Cook County’s leading .293.  

0 – sacrifice bunts by Metropolis, although they did attempt one.  Santa Barbara has an amazing 91 sacrifice bunts, which is 50 more than the closest team and 72 more than the league average of 19.

1 – caught stealing by Fleetwood, in 31 attempts.  Fremont has a league-leading 43 caught stealing.

3.33 – K/BB ratio for California pitchers.  They lead the league in strikeouts and are third in walks allowed.

17 – passed balls by Hessville.  Only two other teams are in double digits.

26 – errors by Latrobe.  The next closest are Parkland and Santa Barbara, with 35.

27 – complete games by Fremont pitchers, almost one-third of all their games.

37 – difference in Glen Allen’s home runs at home vs. home runs on the road.  Simi Valley has hit 23 more homers on the road than at home.  Hessville is almost even, with 44 homers at home and 45 on the road.

50.5 – percent of inherited runners North Georgia has allowed to score.  Simi Valley has allowed only 18.4% to score.

51 – unearned runs allowed by Brew City, which means their 5.22 team ERA might be artificially good.

58.5 – percent of Simi Valley base runners (H+HBP+BB) that eventually score.  That is the lowest in Brassball, but Simi Valley still leads the league in runs scored.  Boson scores 72.9% of its baserunners.

102 – double plays ground into by Springfield.  That’s almost 30 more than the average team.

133 – home runs allowed by Myrtle Beach.  Only one team has hit that many – Glen Allen with 139.