2015 NLCS Preview - Fleetwood vs. Metropolis

The Fleetwood Walkers and Metropolis Avengers meet again in the National League Playoffs. They met in 2012 and 2013, when both series went the full distance. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see this series go seven games, as both teams are deep, talented, and experienced.  Before the fireworks begin, let’s take a look at how each team got to this point.

              

• Metropolis has the home-field advantage because it had 106 wins on the season to Fleetwood’s 104. 
• However, it’s likely Fleetwood would have passed Metropolis if the season had gone on for another week. The Walkers were a white-hot 20-2 in September while Metropolis was a merely excellent 15-7 in the season's last month.
• Fleetwood had 52 wins at home and on the road. Metropolis won 55 at home and 51 on the road.
• Despite being two of the best teams in Brassball, both clubs may have actually been unlucky. Metropolis's Pythagorean Expectation predicted a 112-50 record. Fleetwood's predicted an identical 112-50 record.
• Walker catcher Francisco Cervelli might be a secret weapon. He hit .292/.412/.431 on the season and had a better Runs Created/27 outs than Miguel Cabrera. Fellow catcher Derek Norris was even better, going .336/.416/.513 with 8.31 RC/27.
• Metropolis's pinch hit weapon could be Gregorio Petit, who tallied .377/.385/.631 and 9.03 RC/27.
• Each team has been anchored by dual MVP-quality hitters over the last several years. Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera area the studs in Fleetwood, while Andrew McCutchen and Robinson Cano have led the way in Metropolis.
• The Walkers could be a bit black-and-blue after a long season. They were hit by 83 pitches during the season. The Avengers were plunked just 56 times.
• Metropolis has long been known for its dominating bullpen, headlined by Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. The team compiled a 2.80 bullpen ERA on the season. However, the Fleetwood bullpen had an even better regular season ERA of 2.72.
• Fleetwood made two trade-deadline acquisitions: DH Seth Smith and RHP John Lackey. Lackey was a perfect 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his seven starts for Fleetwood. However, he is battling some arm soreness and is unlikely to even make the NLCS roster. Smith hit just .267 as a Walker, but his patience and power combined for a solid .783 OPS.
• Metropolis also added a starter and designated hitter, as they traded for Anibal Sanchez and Steve Pearce. Sanchez was an even 3-3, but with a 1.65 ERA for the Avengers. Pearce hit .249 with eight homers and a .765 OPS after the trade.
• Metropolis won the regular season series against Fleetwood four games to three. The games were close and Metropolis scored 23 runs in the series, while Fleetwood scored 21.
• The Avengers had a spectacular +284 run differential on the season, but Fleetwood’s +299 was even better. Those are the #1 and #2 run differentials in the game. 
• Trout and McCutchen were #1 and #2 in runs scored this year. Trout touched home 123 times and McCutchen did so 117 times. 
• Trout was also #2 in strikeouts, with 204 on the season.
• Avenger righty Stephen Strasburg tied with teammate Corey Kluber to lead Brassball with 37 games started. Despite his 17-13 record in those starts, Strasburg finds himself left off the postseason roster.
• Both teams were at their best with the bases loaded. Fleetwood hit .398/.455/.564 in 133 at bats. Metropolis hit .331/.384/.567 in 127 at bats with three runners on.
• Metropolis stole just 28 bases on the season. Fleetwood stole 60. Metropolis had a slightly better success rate – 76% to 71%.
• Metropolis’s pitchers bring more gas. They struck out 1480 batters on the season. Fleetwood struck out 1171. The Avengers walked fewer batters, as well – 370 to the Walkers’ 420.
• Fleetwood was better against left-handed starters, going 35-16 for a .686 winning percentage. They had a .622 winning percentage vs. righties. 
• The Avengers had a similar split - .675 vs. lefties and .648 vs. righties. Unless something surprising happens, it’s unlikely either team will face a lefty this series.
• The biggest mismatch might be in Game 4 starters. Fleetwood's Phil Hughes had a good record (15-6) but a mediocre 3.77 ERA on the year. Metropolis will send Sanchez and his 1.65 ERA as an Avenger to the mound for that game.
• However, Fleetwood has a big advantage at shortstop defense, where starter Marwin Gonzalez made just three errors in 82 starts. Avenger Jose Reyes made 25 while playing nearly every inning.

Good luck to both teams in what should be a close and exciting series!