2013 World Series - Preview

This year's World Series is a rematch of the 2012 contest between AL Champs Santa Barbara Outlaws and the NL champion Metropolis Avengers.  The 2012 series went the full seven games and wasn't decided until the very last pitch, when the outlaws left the bases loaded to lose the deciding game 2-1.  

Taking a closer look at the teams, their players, and stats may reveal some clues about the series to come.  Or it may not.  But either way, it should be interesting:

• Santa Barbara is the first team to win three straight league pennants.  The Long Island Tigers won three NL titles in four years (1995, 1996, 1998).  The Outlaws hope to not follow the Tigers in losing all three World Series.    

• Metropolis is trying to join Springfield and Box City as the only teams to repeat as World Series champs.  The Avengers are trying to win their third championship since joining the league in 1999 (2006, 2012).

• During the regular season, Metropolis won 117 games, 19 more than Santa Barbara’s 98. 

• Based on their runs scored and runs allowed, and according to the baseball version of the Pythagorean Formula, Metropolis “should” have won 129 games while Santa Barbara “should” have won 103 games.

• Each team left one of their best starters off the World Series roster.  Wei Chen was second with 15 wins for Santa Barbara but lost his playoff spot to rookie AJ Griffin, who was just 4-5 on the year.  In the other dugout, Avenger fireballer Stephen Strasburg is on the outside looking in.  He led all of Brassball with a 2.36 ERA, but the team shut him down to protect his surgically repaired right elbow.  So far, the decision has worked out, but if the team falls short of the title, there will undoubtedly be many difficult questions to answer.

• Metropolis is more patient at the plate and on the bases.  Avenger hitters walked 152 more times on the year, but Outlaw runners stole 86 more bases.  Despite their lack of stolen-base speed, Avenger hitters out-tripled the Outlaws, 48-29. 

• There is no difference more dramatic than the way the teams approach small-ball.  Santa Barbara hitters attempted 118 sacrifice bunts and their pitchers intentionally walked 45 opposing batters.  Metropolis, on the other hand attempted just ONE bunt all season and issued just six free passes.  (Santa Barbara led the league in both categories while Metropolis was tied for second fewest.)

• Outlaw base stealers (and aren’t all base thieves outlaws?) may have a tough go of it against the Avengers, who allowed just 39 stolen bases all season.  However, Miguel Montero caught most of the season for Metropolis and has apparently lost his starting job to mid-season acquisition Carlos Ruiz. 

• In a close series, even one extra base can make the difference, and Santa Barbara appears to have the stronger defense overall.  The Outlaws made fewer errors (87 to 94) and allowed fewer passed balls and wild pitches.  Outlaw fielders also have tremendous range, particularly up the middle, where Elvis Andrus and Brandon Phillips are top-notch.

• On the other hand, the left side of the Avenger infield could be trouble, a third baseman David Freese and shortstop Jose Reyes had a bit of trouble picking it.  Freese’s 19 errors were 11^th most in all of Brassball while Reyes’s 23 errors were fifth.

• Both teams made big trades for ace starters, but only one pitched that way.  Metropolis added Kris Medlen, who went 8-0, 2.06 ERA after the trade.  Santa Barbara traded for Felix Hernandez, who was only 6-4, 4.04 after becoming an Outlaw.

• Each offense has an MVP candidate at a prime position.  Catcher Buster Posey was Santa Barbara’s best player all year and hit .328/.401/.539 with 25 HR and 93 RBI.  Center fielder Andrew McCutchen was the anchor for Metropolis, going .337/.401/.580 with 36 HR and 123 RBI.

• If it becomes a battle of the bullpens, Metropolis may have the upper hand.  Their relievers had a 1.96 ERA on the season, while Santa Barbara’s pen had an ERA of 3.03.

• Metropolis may have had the better regular season, but Santa Barbara comes into the World Series better rested.  Fleetwood took Metropolis to Game Seven in the NLCS while Santa Barbara swept upstart Lancaster in the ALCS. 

• Neither team has a left-handed starter in their rotation, which may work to the Avengers’ advantage.  Metropolis hit .284/.356/.468 against righties while Santa Barbara hit .251/.313/.414 against them. 

• Last year, Santa Barbara left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game Seven.  This year, they have been one of the most dangerous teams with the bases loaded – hitting seven grand slams and going .329/.400/.659 in 85 at bats.  Metropolis wasn’t as good, with three grand slams and .331/.399/.459 in 148 at bats.

• Odds are good Buster Posey won’t face a lefty in the series, after hitting .454 and slugging .782 against southpaws during the season.

• Both teams were merely average in close games and extra-innings.  Metropolis was 21-21 in one-run games, while Santa Barbara was 20-23.  In extra innings, the Avengers were 11-10 and the Outlaws were 10-10. 

• Metropolis won five of the seven regular season games between the teams, outscoring the Outlaws 42-15.

• Finally, it turns out the blog following Game Seven of the 2012 World Series was more than a little prescient.  These were the last words:  "Of course, all of that comes later, and for now the Avengers get to celebrate while the Outlaws have to ask "what if?"  They had the best team in Brassball all season long, going 127-35 on the year and finishing the season on a 20-2 run, but came up just short in the last inning of the last game of the year.  Both teams look like contenders to return to the 2013 World Series, so it's possible the Outlaws may get another chance at the Avengers." 

Indeed the Outlaws do get another chance at the Avengers, and it starts soon!