Wednesday, October 19, 2016

2016 NLCS - Metropolis vs. Fleetwood - Series Preview

The Fleetwood Walkers and Metropolis Avengers have been the class of the National League for several years and they seemed destined to meet in the NLCS again in 2016. Before the fireworks start, let's look at some of the stats and stories that may (or may not) be key to who goes to the World Series and who goes home.

  • The teams have met in the playoffs four times and Fleetwood is certainly looking to change the result:
    • 2015 NLCS (Metropolis in five)
    • 2013 NLCS (Metropolis in seven)
    • 2012 NLDS (Metropolis in seven)
    • 2006 NLCS (Metropolis in seven)
  • In the last five years, Fleetwood has averaged 111.2 wins per year. Metropolis has averaged 114.2.
  • However, this year Fleetwood topped the Avengers 121 wins to 116. 
  • Each of the teams has a young superstar who thinks they should be the MVP. Fleetwood's Mike Trout is the defending MVP and hit .276/.362/.499 while playing sterling defense in the outfield. Metropolis's Bryce Harper is looking to take the trophy this year and put up a .304/.425/.655 season.
  • Both clubs also have slugging veterans to protect their young stars. Walker Miguel Cabrera and Avenger David Ortiz put up nearly identical OPSs of 1.061 and 1.051 on the season.
  • The Walkers clubbed left-handed pitchers during the season. They were 44-9 against LH starting pitchers and had an .894 OPS against them. The Avengers, however, will start only righties in the series and their lefties are far from typical - Aroldis Chapman and Zach Britton combined for a 1.53 and 102 strikeouts in 82 1/3 innings.
  • Collin McHugh had a great start for Metropolis in the NLDS, but rumor is the team is considering moving Nate Karns into the rotation for the NLCS. Karns has a hard fastball/sinker combination which may be a better matchup against the slugging Walkers.
  • Metropolis may have an advantage on defense. The Avengers committed 71 errors which led to 56 unearned runs. The Walkers booted 89 errors, but they actually allowed fewer unearned runs (45).
  • One area Fleetwood has the advantage is its bench. The Avengers had just 92 pinch hitting opportunities during the season and they managed just a .174 average. The Walkers hit .291 in their 165 pinch hitting chances.
  • You should probably bet the under on the number of intentional walks in the series. Fleetwood gave three free passes during the season. That was three more than Metropolis gave.
  • Fleetwood hitter came through in the clutch - with an .843 OPS and three grand slams with the bases loaded. The Avengers, however, were even better. They had a 1.118 OPS and 12 homers in just 131 at bats with the bases loaded. 
  • Metropolis better think twice before running on Kevin Kiermaier. The Fleetwood center fielder was among the league leaders with ten outfield assists. 
  • The Walkers were also the runners, at least compared with Metropolis. Fleetwood stole 83 bases and was thrown out just 17 times. Metropolis stole on 40 bases with 18 caught stealing.
  • The Avengers have used dominant bullpens as key cogs in their four consecutive NL champion clubs. They still have some big names, but this year their relievers had a good, but not great, 3.22 ERA. In fact, the Walker bullpen was much better during the season and compiled a 2.57 ERA.
  • Fleetwood won five of the seven matchups between the two teams. They outscored Metropolis 52-30 in the series.
  • Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper formed Brassball's best 1-2 punch. Harper led the league with 132 runs scored and McCutchen finished just behind with 127.
  • Metropolis also had the 1-2-3 sluggers in the National League. Harper led the league with 48 homers, David Ortiz was second with 44 and Chris Davis was third with 43.
  • Robinson Cano has been a star for Metropolis for years, but he's been moved way down the order this year. The Avengers had good reason, as their second baseman grounded into 29 double plays on the season.
  • Fleetwood's Zack Greinke led all pitchers with 23 wins. He also finished second with an .828 winning percentage. His teammate John Lackey finished first at .833.
  • Another Walker starter, Garrett Richards, also led the league in something. His 25 wild pitches were ten more than anyone else in the league.
  • Metropolis's Hall of Justice is the most pitcher-friendly park in Brassball, but Avenger batters were second in the league with a .836 OPS. Fleetwood was third at .820.

Pennant Race Trades Reviewed

The Avengers have represented the National League in the Brassball World Series for the last four years. In each of those years, the club's front office has been aggressive at the trade deadline, being willing to trade draft picks and prospects for players who could help them play for and win a title. Let's take a look at those trades and how they worked out.

2012
1. $100,000 to Florence for David Herndon.
This was a smaller trade, and Herndon got only limited work in the playoffs. He was supposed to lock-down opposing right-handed hitters, but he gave up six hits in 3 1/3 innings and had a 10.80 ERA.
Grade: D

2. Jed Lowrie to Parkland for Kenley Jansen.
Lowrie was a good, but not great, infielder and the Avengers traded him for a shut-down reliever. Jansen was a weapon for three Avenger playoff rosters and helped them win two World Series rings. He totaled 47 2/3 IP with a 2.27 ERA in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 playoffs.
Grade: A-

3. David Carpenter to Boston for Jeremy Affeldt
Affeldt was a LOOGY and did his job well. He pitched just 6 2/3 innings, but didn't allow an earned run and picked up one win along the way.
Grade: B

4. Miguel Sano, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Chris Resop, 2013 #1 draft pick to Butte County for RA Dickey and Craig Kimbrel
Wow. This was the blockbuster. The Avengers gave up a ton of future value, but got two stars in return. Dickey went 5-1 in the 2013 postseason with a 3.89 ERA in seven starts and 39 2/3 IP. Metropolis expected Kimbrel to be nothing short of unhittable and he delivered the goods. He's pitched in 37 playoff games and totaled 61 2/3 innings while allowing a minuscule 0.29 ERA. He struck out 79 batters and allowed just 28 hits and 27 walks. Metropolis leveraged Kimbrel to the extreme and it worked better than anyone could have expected.
Grade: A- (docked for the tremendous value traded away)

2013
1. Carter Capps, Rubby de la Rosa, Adalberto Mondesi, Corey Seager, Zach Stewart, 2014 #2 draft pick to Springfield for Kris Medlen
Another blockbuster. The Avengers traded away four top prospects for Medlen, who they expected to be their ace for the next couple years. Medlen was certainly their ace in the playoffs. He started four games in 2013 and pitched 29 1/3 innings with a 1.53 ERA. He went just 1-1 in those starts, but it's hard to blame him. That said, the team failed to defend their championship that year and then Medlen got hurt. The World Series loss and injury knock this grade down quite a bit, and that's before considering all the talent traded away.
Grade: C

2. $50,000 to Springfield for Randy Choate
The quintessential aging lefty, Choate got into just one game for the Avengers that October. He pitched one inning and gave up an earned run on two hits.
Grade: C

3. $600,000 to West Hills for Carlos Ruiz
Ruiz stepped right in as the starter and hit near the top of the order. In 17 games and 72 at bats, Ruiz hit .293/.329/.520 while tying for the team lead with four homers. You can't ask for much more than that, particularly when the cost was just $600,000.
Grade: A

2014
1. #8 draft pick to Latrobe for Nick Vincent
Vincent was asked to retire tough right-handed hitters and he did just that. He appeared in seven games and pitched 9 2/3 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He wasn't the most critical pitcher in the bullpen, but he got the job done when called on.
Grade: B

2. Jesus Guzman and $125,000 to Sacramento for Josh Satin
Satin was added to serve as the right-handed part of a first base platoon with Chris Davis. He didn't do much, hitting just .176/.263/.412 in the postseason.
Grade: F

3. Mike Fiers, Freddy Garcia, Michael Blazek, $500,000, and Bonus Pick to Tinley for Justin Masterson
Masterson was a late addition to an already strong rotation. He was only called on to start one game in each series, but he won all three games he started and put up a solid 3.44 ERA.
Grade: A-

4. Andrew Romine, Luis Jimenz, $250,000 to West Hills for Ramiro Pena.
Pena was acquired to be a pinch hitter off the bench. He appeared in just one game and went 0-1, but he did get a World Series ring.
Grade: D

2015
1. Kenta Maeda, Amed Rosario, Corey Knebel, Timberlake #3 draft pick for Anibal Sanchez, Ronald Belisario, $5,750,000 
Sanchez did what was asked of him - he was a good fourth starter. He only won a single game, but gave the Avengers a 2.87 ERA in his three starts. Metropolis gave up a lot of value to get those 15 innings, and that has to affect the trade's grade. Kenta Maeda is exactly the type of player the Avengers could use, and now he's on a league rival.
Grade: C

2. Freddy Galvis and Franklin Barreto to Sacramento for Steve Pearce
Pearce came in to play 1B against righties, but he forgot to bring his bat with him to Metropolis. Pearce hit just .210/.279/.306 with a one homer and two runs batted in. The Avengers likely would have been better letting Jose Bautista play every day. They couldn't have been worse.
Grade: D

Flags Fly Forever
It's hard to argue with four World Series appearances and two titles, but the Avengers have traded away enough talent to form the core of another playoff team. In fact, you can build most of a good lineup with the players dealt away:

1B - Matt Adams
2B - Jed Lowrie
3B - Anthony Rendon
SS - Corey Seager
LF - Miguel Sano

While that club may be missing a few positions, it can fill in with talented young shortsops Raul Mondesi, Amed Rosario, and Franklin Barreto.

The Avengers also traded away pitchers Kenta Maeda, Rubby De La Rosa, Carter Capps, Michael Blazek, and Corey Knebel, so they paid the price on both sides of the ball.

Of course, trading away players like that brings a lot in return. Most of the Avenger trades were for pitching, and the pitchers acquired in the trades above were instrumental in the club's postseason success. When combined, those pitchers put up a line that looks like this:
101 Games
17 Games Started
232 2/3 Innings Pitched
2.13 ERA
21 Wins
6 Losses
13 Saves
154 Hits
247 Strikeouts
94 Walks

Losing players like Seager, Rendon, Sano, and Maeda hurts, but doing so helped Metropolis win two World Series titles, and they're still looking for more. That's a trade (or trades, to be accurate) the team would make every time.

Brassball Free Agent Preview - Restricted Free Agents

While the playoffs are underway, most of the Brassball teams have already turned their attention to 2017 and building a club which will help them play deep into the postseason a year from now. The quickest way to improve a club is through free agency, but some of the biggest names on the market are restricted free agents, meaning their own teams have the option to match any offer and retain the player. Here's a quick look at the restricted free agents and some educated guesses as to whether or not their teams will retain their services.

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw - Simi Valley
You need an ace? This is your guy. Kershaw is a stud and everyone knows it. Not everyone can afford him, however. He's the Cy Young favorite every year and he came through for the Vikings with a 23-7 record and 2.59 ERA. They'll certainly try to retain Kershaw, but other teams are going to come with blank checks Simi Valley can't match. Prediction - leaves as a free agent for 7 years and $58,000,000

Madison Bumgarner - Santa Barbara
Bumgarner has been one of the best pitchers in Brassball and the anchor of the Outlaw pitching staff for several years. He was 20-7 with a 2.68 ERA on the season and it seems highly unlikely the Outlaws would let him move to another club. Prediction - Resigns for 7 years and $50,000,000.

Yovani Gallardo - California
Gallardo was only 8-5 on the year, but he had a solid 3.41 ERA in 187 innings. Those aren't Bumgarner or Kershaw numbers, but nearly every team would be happy to have Gallardo in their rotation. Unfortunately for California, they may not have the payroll flexibility to keep him. Prediction - leaves as a free agent for 3 years and $7,000,000

Derek Holland - Florence
A couple of years ago Holland looked like a budding ace. Unfortunately, injuries have taken their toll. He was able to make just six starts on the year and pitched 40 innings for the River Bats. Florence has the payroll space to retain him, but do they want to? Prediction - leaves as a free agent for 2 years $800,000

Travis Wood - Sacramento
Wood was a disappointing 2-7. He had a good, but not great, 3.04 ERA. But, he did so in ONE HUNDRED AND FOUR INNINGS AS A RELIEF PITCHER. Think about that. Of course, that means he's likely headed for a surgeon's table. Prediction - resigns for 4 years and $5,500,000.

Batters

Evan Longoria - Tinley
A gold-glove third baseman who plays every day and hits .300 with 20+ homers. Everyone's interested in Longoria, even if they already have a third baseman. There will be a lot of suitors, but Tinley will do everything they can to resign their star. Prediction - resigns for 6 years and $32,000,000.

Jay Bruce - Brooklyn
Bruce couldn't have picked a worse time to have his worst year. He played nearly every day and hit just .172/.261/.368. Only gold glove shortstops can hope to keep playing while "hitting" so poorly. Bruce still has the talent that made him a star, but he may need a new team and hitting coach to help bring it out. Prediction - leaves as a free agent for 5 years and $10,000,000.

Pedro Alvarez - Tinley
Alvares still has power, but that's about all he has. He hit just .233 with a .288 on base percentage on the year. That's tough to accept if you hit 30 home runs, and Alvarez didn't even hit 20. Tinley has some money to spend, but will likely look to upgrade rather than bringing Alvarez back. Prediction - leaves as a free agent for 3 years and $6,500,000.

Brandon Moss - Tinley
Another low-average slugger who didn't slug enough for the Redbirds. Moss hit .211/.282/.409 on the year. He's supposed to crush right-handed pitchers, but his OPS against them was just .699. Prediction - leaves as a free agent for 3 years and $4,500,000.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

2016 NLDS - Metropolis vs. Sacramento - Series Wrap-Up


The Metropolis Avengers dropped the first game of their NLDS matchup with the Sacramento Senators, but they won the next four games to advance to the NLCS for the fifth-straight year. Anyone watching the series would likely summarize it by saying "Metropolis pitching dominated," but there are always some interesting statistics hiding if you look a bit deeper. Here are a few of them.
  • Sacramento won Game One 5-3, but only scored four runs the rest of the series. 
  • The Senators scored a single run in the final three games of the series.
  • Third baseman Danny Valencia was a bit overlooked during the season, as his 18 homers were just seventh on the club. He came up big in the NLDS, though, leading the way with two homers and six RBIs.
  • Metropolis traded for Zach Britton at the deadline and he paid off in the NLDS. He pitched 6 1/3 innings in four games and allowed just two hits while striking out eight batters without a walk.
  • Metropolis used just two pinch hitters all series and neither Pablo Sandoval nor Dioner Navarro came through in their chances.
  • Sacramento's pinch hitters had even more trouble - Chris Carter was 0-4 in his pinch-hitting opportunities and Colby Rasmus and Kelby Tomlinson each went hitless in a single at bat.
  • Pitching was the story of the series. Avenger pitchers allowed just 24 hits and struck out 47 batters. Senator pitchers gave up 38 hits and struck out 42 Avenger batters.
  • Metropolis batters combined for a .321 OBP and .379 SLG, which combined for an even .700 OPS in 187 plate appearances Sacramento batters struggled with a .205 OBP and .218 SLG. That added up for a .423 OPS across 166 plate appearances.
  • Kevin Pillar homered in the bottom of the seventh in Game One. It was the last homer Sacramento would hit in 2016.
  • Prince Fielder had a rough series. It wasn't just his.255 OPS - he also grounded three double plays in the five games.
  • Former Avenger Freddy Galvis did his best to send his former team home. He hit .294 in the series, second only to Jason Kipnis. He also played a perfect shortstop and also scored and drove in two runs.
  • Metropolis starting pitchers combined for a 1.57 ERA, but averaged fewer than six innings per start.
  • Despite the great pitching and low scores, neither team showed much interest in playing small ball. They combined for just one stolen base (by Kipnis) and zero sacrifice bunts.
  • Carlos Martinez came up short in Game Five, but he looks like an ace for many years to come. He struck out 17 batters and allowed just ten hits in 13 1/3 innings.
  • Andrew McCutchen was steller in the lead-off role for the Avengers. He hit .389/.522/.722 in the series for a .1.244 OPS.
  • Unfortunately for the Avengers, Bryce Harper followed McCutchen in the order and hit just .158 without an extra base hit. It will be difficult for Metropolis to advance to the World Series unless Harper breaks out of his slump.
  • Avenger righty Joaquin Benoit had a 1.47 ERA in 61 1/3 innings during the season. Metropolis claims he's fully healthy, but he didn't make an appearance against Sacramento. 

2016 NLDS - Metropolis vs. Sacramento - Game Five

Corey Kluber took the ball for Metropolis.
The Sacramento Senators came into Game Five of the NLDS needing to win three straight to earn a trip to the National League Championship Series. But they needed to win one game first. Sacramento sent their ace, Carlos Martinez, to the mound hoping to out-duel Corey Kluber and send the series to Metropolis for Game Six.

Martinez, who won Game One of the series, had a rough start in Game Five. He walked Andrew McCutchen to start the game and then gave up a single to Bryce Harper, putting runners at the corners with no one out. Avenger three hitter Giancarlo Stanton crushed a double deep to center field to score McCutchen. Harper held at third base on the play, trusting the Metropolis hitters to drive him in, rather than risking being thrown out at the plate. Martinez, however, collected himself and struck out Chris Davis and Danny Valencia before retiring David Ortiz on a groundout to end the inning and strand Harper on third.

Kluber breezed through the first inning but faced trouble in the second when McCutchen misplayed an easy fly ball for a two-base error to start the inning. Unfortunately for the Senators, they stranded Prince Fielder at second base and Metropolis held on to their one-run lead.

Both Martinez and Kluber lived up to their "ace" title from that point on. Kluber allowed just two baserunners total after the McCutchen error and Martinez was nearly as good and kept the game 1-0 into the late innings. The Senator starter began to tire in the eighth inning, however. Nick Hundley started the frame with a single and McCutchen walked to put two on with nobody out. Sacramento went to its pen and called on Mark Melancon, who quickly retired Harper and Stanton. Chris Davis, however, drew a walk to load the bases. Danny Valencia came through in the clutch and singled home Hundley to give Metropolis a 2-0 lead. Melancon retired Ortiz to leave the bases loaded, but the Avenger scored a critical insurance run.

Sacramento tried hard to rally in the eighth inning. Freddy Galvis singled to start the inning, but Zach
Manship struck out Nelson Cruz in the eighth.
Britton induced a double-play grounder from Kevin Pillar to wipe Galvis off base. Jason Kipnis singled to try and restart a rally and Britton hit Alex Gordon with a pitch to put the tying run on base. Nelson Cruz, easily the most dangerous hitter in the Sacramento lineup, came to the plate and Metropolis called on righty Jeff Manship for what may have been the most important at bat of the series to that point. The Avenger righty was up to the challenge and he struck Cruz out on a backdoor slider to end the inning and strand two runners.

Kevin Pillar struck out to end the series.
Manship stayed on to start the ninth inning and immediately got into trouble. Fielder singled to start the inning and Chris Carter walked to bring the winning run to the plate. Surprisingly, Metropolis stayed with Manship in the clutch, and he struck out Yunel Escobar and induced a fly ball from Colby Rasmus.

Avenger closer Craig Kimbrel then came into the game, hoping to get the last out of the game, and series. Instead, Galvis welcomed Kimbrel with a single to load the bases and put the tying run in scoring position. That put the game in Kevin Pillar's hands. Pillar hit a surprising homer in the first game of the series, but Kimbrel won this battle and struck out the Senator outfielder to leave the bases loaded and send the Avengers into the National League Championship Series for the fifth year in a row.


2016 NLDS - Metropolis vs. Sacramento - Game Four

Having won games two and three, the Metropolis Avengers were looking to win game four and take a commanding in their NLDS series with the Sacramento Senators. They sent Collin McHugh to the mound. Sacramento trusted Matt Shoemaker to get them back in the series.
The Avengers didn't waste any time, as Andrew McCutchen laced a double on the third pitch of the game. He advanced to third on a Bryce Harper grounder and scored the games first run on a Giancarlo Stanton single. Two batters later Danny Valencia hit his second homer of the series and the visitors had a 3-0 lead.

Collin McHugh tossed 7 2/3 innings for Metropolis.
McHugh was a bit wild to start the game and walked the first two Senator hitters, Jason Kipnis and Alex Gordon. He got out of trouble and used a double play grounder from Prince Fielder to escape any damage in the inning.

Metropolis added to their lead the next inning. Robinson Cano signled with one out and McCutchen came up one batter later with two outs. He fouled off five consecutive pitches and then caught up to a Schoemaker fastball for a line-drive home run to give Metropolis a 5-0 lead.

Sacramento tried to get the momentum back in the bottom of the third. Kevin Pillar doubled and Jason Kipnis drove him home with a single to put the Senators on the board. However, McHugh retired Gordon and Nelson Cruz and kept the score 5-1 heading into the middle innings.

The pitchers dominated those middle innings, as neither team collected a hit in the fourth, fifth, or sixth innings. Metropolis drew two walks in the fifth, but Valencia hit a fly ball to strand Harper and Chris Davis after their free passes.

The Avengers added an insurance run on two hits in the eighth. David Ortiz collected the RBI with a seeing-eye single off reliever Travis Wood. The run gave Metropolis a 6-1 lead and the Senators were running out of time to make up the deficit.

Unlike the first three games of the series, Metropolis stuck with its starter deep into the game. McHugh pitched 7 2/3 innings before giving the ball to his bullpen. Zach Britton took the ball from McHugh and looked to protect the five-run lead he was given.

Cano made Britton's job easier when he started the top of the ninth with a solo homer. To be honest, Britton never looked like he needed the added runs, as kept the Senators off balance and didn't allow anyone to even reach base. He retired the side in order in the bottom of the ninth and closed out the third Metropolis win in a row.

While Sacramento started the series with a win, they are now just one game away from elimination. They have their ace scheduled for Game Five, but so do the Avengers. It will be a rematch of Game One, when Senator Carlos Martinez outpitched Corey Kluber. He'll need to do so again if the series is to go back to Metropolis for Game Six.

Saturday, October 15, 2016

2016 NLDS - Metropolis vs. Sacramento - Game Three

Tied at one-game each, the 2016 National League Division Series moves to Sacramento for the middle three games. The hometown Senators gave the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin and the Avengers countered with righty Stephen Strasburg. 


Danny Valencia homered off Patrick Corbin.
Avenger third baseman Danny Valencia got the scoring started in the top of the second, when he followed a Chris Davis single with a home run just over the left-field wall for a two-run homer and a quick Metropolis lead. 

Metropolis rallied again in the top of the fifth. Shortstop Jose Iglesias leaned into a Corbin changeup to start the inning with a hit by pitch. Andrew McCutchen followed with a single to put runners on the corners with no outs. Avenger MVP candidate Bryce Harper ripped a line drive, but it was right to Logan Morrison for an out. However, Giancarlo Stanton was able to do the job and hit a soft single to left to score Iglesias and put the Avengers up 3-0.

Stephen Strasburg dominated through 5 1/3 innings for the win.
While the Avenger bats were putting runs on the board, Strasburg was cruising. Alex Gordon was the only Senator Strasburg allowed to reach base - Gordon walked in the first inning and singled to lead off the fourth. Surprisingly, Metropolis pulled Strasburg with one out in the sixth inning. He had allowed just the one hit and one walk while striking out eight Senator hitters through 5 1/3 innings. 

The Senators may have been happy to see Strasburg exit, but the Avenger bullpen wasn't going to let them back in the game. Xavier Cedeno, Matt Albers, Aroldis Chapman, and Jeff Manship combined to pitch 3 2/3 innings while allowing just two base runners. Altogether, the Metropolis pitchers allowed just four baserunners while striking out eleven batters.

Sacramento's bullpen was just as good, but it didn't matter. The final few innings were relatively uneventful and Metropolis cruised to a 3-0 win and and pulled ahead in the series two games to one.

Having squandered it's early lead in the series, the Senators will match Matt Shoemaker against Avenger starter Collin McHugh in Game Four.